RESEARCH PAPER ON WHEN TREES NO LONGER FIT THEIR CLIMATE UNDERSTANDING SHIFTING TREE RANGES AND FUTURE FORESTS

Abstract

Climate change is changing the conditions under which trees survive, regenerate and grow. A location that is suitable for a tree today may not remain suitable in the future. This creates a risk of climate mismatch, where a tree is planted in a place that may become unsuitable during its lifetime. This study examines this issue in the western Himalaya, focusing on Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Four tree species were selected: Cedrus deodara, Pinus wallichiana, Abies pindrow and Quercus leucotrichophora. The study uses secondary evidence from GBIF, ISFR 2023, IPCC AR6 and peer-reviewed species-level studies. The findings show that all four species face climate-related pressure, but the form and severity differ. Cedrus deodara shows projected declines in growth, Pinus wallichiana shows evidence of upward treeline movement, Abies pindrow shows projected habitat contraction with uncertainty, while Quercus leucotrichophora shows a much larger projected decline in suitable habitat. The comparison also highlights an important difference between climatic suitability and actual species establishment. A climatically suitable area may not support successful regeneration because of dispersal, soil, competition, fire, grazing and other local factors. The study therefore argues that future tree selection should not depend only on present-day suitability. Climate projections, regeneration capacity and local ecological conditions need to be considered together. This can support a more dynamic and climate-informed approach to forest management. Keywords: Climate change, tree habitat suitability, climate velocity, western Himalaya, species vulnerability, regeneration, climate mismatch, assisted migration, climate-smart forestry, tree selection.